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March 2021 GDP Forecast | Growth ups and downs projected in the first two quarters point to an uncertain recovery in 2021
17 March 2021

The real GDP growth rate amounted to -11.5% year-on-year for January 2021. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2021 remained unchanged, at -5.4%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q2 of 2021 puts GDP growth at a positive 11%.

February 2021 GDP Forecast | National, global vaccination efforts, resumption of travel and trade are key to Georgia’s economic recovery in 2021
15 February 2021

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020, and their estimated growth stands at -6.5%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2020 amounted to -6.1%, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. Economic activity fell sharply due to global pandemic, although the decline was mitigated by the relatively strong fiscal stimulus and lending.

January 2021 GDP Forecast | GDP growth projections for 2020 currently at -5.5%, but a two month lockdown means more bad news for growth are yet to come
25 January 2021

The real GDP growth rate amounted to -7.7% year-on-year for November 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2020 was -5.9%. Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate was -5.6% (down by 0.5 ppt relative to the forecast).

December 2020 GDP Forecast | Decline in global oil prices drives trade balance and inflation rate improvements in Georgia
16 December 2020

The real GDP growth rate amounted to -3.9% year-on-year for October 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2020 was -5.1%. Recently, GeoStat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2020. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised downward to 2.2% (by 0.1 ppt) and -13.2% (by 0.9 ppt) respectively.

Quarter 3 2020, Macro Review | Georgia’s Q3 economic blues reflect the realities of the global supply and demand double shock
11 December 2020

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP contracted by 3.8% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2020. As a result, the estimated real GDP declined by 5.0% in the first nine months of 2020, which is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) and National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) latest projections of -5% y/y (from October and November correspondingly).

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